Autonomous vehicle technology improves, becomes commercially viable but very expensive. Long commutes via autonomous vehicles become viable for the wealthy who live in smaller communities far outside cities.
Unequal Enclaves
This scenario sees deteriorating urban conditions driving populations away from traditional cities, as also noted in the dispersed settlements scenario. However, in this scenario, only the wealthy will be able to leave cities, creating new affluent settlements.
As traditional cities are battered by the effect of climate change and devastating cyberattacks, governments run out of funding and begin privatizing city services. Some privatization efforts will yield innovative construction designs, but the benefits will not be evenly distributed among society—as most smart-city applications will be targeted toward wealthy commuters rather than suffering city residents.
Autonomous Vehicles
on Unequal Enclaves
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10 years from now
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25 years from now
Autonomous vehicles are mobile workstations. Wealthy residents of new enclaves use completely autonomous transportation to commute into traditional cities.
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50 years from now
Revolutionary autonomous vehicle technology dramatically cuts commute time from wealthy enclaves. Benefits of autonomous vehicle efficiencies trickle down to city residents.
Policy & Funding
on Unequal Enclaves
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10 years from now
Governments lose valuable tax base as wealthy individuals leave cities for new enclaves. With lack of funding, governments cannot keep up with aging infrastructure and are unable to mitigate or effectively respond to natural and manmade disasters.
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25 years from now
Governments, further cash-strapped by a declining tax pool, increasingly rely on privatized services to support the public, with mixed results.
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50 years from now
Traditional cities implement premium services geared at wealthy commuters. Profits supplement some services for less-wealthy city residents.
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10 years from now
Cities are increasingly battered by climate-related disasters as limited preventative action is taken. Digital developments (smart cities, virtual commuting) are slowed by cyberattacks.
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25 years from now
High-tech construction enables wealthy enclaves to quickly and cheaply build new infrastructure. Smart-city systems do not benefit urban residents. Impacts of climate change will drive alternative energy research.
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50 years from now
Climate change continues to batter cities. Mitigation efforts are focused on the most profitable areas. Wealthy enclaves feature highly optimized infrastructure, distributed solar energy, and smart-city technology.
Implications for Civil Engineers
Privatization of city services will present new opportunities for civil engineers. Bidding for the right to offer those services or partnering with the winning bidder would allow civil engineers to implement a variety of new solutions, from renewable energy generation and storage to smart-city applications to decrease costs and increase safety.
Physical construction will be highly automated, enabling flexible roadways that can shift based on changing environmental conditions or as new, wealthy enclaves pop up. These roadways will also require new codes and standards to regulate them.
Civil engineers will need to have systems dynamics experience to lead teams with cross-functional expertise in widescale rebuilding efforts. This could include cybersecurity experts, climate-risk experts, robotics experts, and city planners. In a cash-strapped environment, emphasis on life-cycle costs and total cost of ownership will be favored over initial build costs.
Construction risks and costs will be exacerbated by extreme storms and flooding due to climate change. To improve costs and efficiencies in construction, civil engineers should consider ways to develop automated construction expertise, along with expertise in automated repair and resilient materials. To improve the sustainability of infrastructure, civil engineers should further develop their energy and water efficiency expertise, including expertise on advanced rooftop solar integration.